Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose again quite sharply yesterday. Unfortunately, the increases of the last three working days almost offset the decreases of the last four days. Nonetheless, these rates remain extraordinarily low by historical standards.
The markets feel calmer this morning. And Mortgage rates could stay stable today or just move on both sides of the neutral line. However, the previously published ADP private sector employment survey showed more new jobs in March than ever in the past five months. And that could add upward pressure on rates during the day.
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 15, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventional 30 year celebration year||2,814%||2,814%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year||2.138%||2.138%||+ 0.01%|
|Conventional 20 years old||2,625%||2,625%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally 10 years fixed year||1,945%||1,978%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5-year ARM||3,532%||3.191%||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,688%||3,343%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed FTA||2,415%||3,015%||+ 0.14%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3,194%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2,255%||2,426%||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM-VA||2.5%||2,372%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. View our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 15, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, Click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
It is becoming increasingly likely that last week’s decline was more of a spike than a change in direction in the upward trend in mortgage rates. And that’s no surprise.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
But I don’t pretend to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal willingness to take risks.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates compared to about the same time yesterday were:
- The 10-year Treasury yield from 1.75% to 1.72% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices were higher When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
- Oil prices decreased from $ 60.49 per barrel to $ 60.47. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role Generate inflation and also point out future economic activity.)
- Gold prices rose to $ 1,692 $ 1,684 per ounce. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – Increased from 44 from 100 to 51. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We’re still on the phone. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this reservation so far Mortgage rates are likely to remain stable today or just move on both sides of the neutral line. Note, however, that intraday swings (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find and lock a cheap rate (June 15, 2021)
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About It‘
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday I discussed the risk factors that could undermine the impending economic boom and cause mortgage rates to fall again. They are all real (along with some I didn’t mention). But I think they are much less likely than continued economic improvements. And that will almost inevitably lead to higher rates.
In fact, we are already seeing more signs of an emerging economic recovery. Yesterday, IHS Markit and Paychex announced in a press release:
The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Business Employment Watch shows a remarkable surge in employment growth in March in all four US regions and nearly all of the states and metropolitan areas analyzed in the report. The Small Business Jobs Index rose to 94.25 in March. While the index remains 4.03 percent below its March 2020 level, last month’s 0.30 percent increase was its strongest one-month gain since 2013.
– “Employment growth in small businesses shows a significant increase for the first time since the start of the pandemic in the USA” March 30, 2021
The official monthly employment figures will be released on Friday. And if they tell a similar story to this report (and most analysts think they do) then that should fuel the upward trend in mortgage rates.
Of course, this trend is interrupted by the occasional falls. And some of it can last for days – like last week. But I expect the increases will outweigh those decreases overall.
For more background on my broader thinking, see our latest Weekend editionwhich is released every Saturday just after 10 p.m. (ET).
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the prices went up. And Freddie’s report from March 25th puts this weekly average at 3.17% (with 0.7 fees and points), compared to 3.09% the previous week. However, the methodology behind Freddie’s survey means it didn’t capture all of the falls over the past week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on March 17th and the MBAs on March 22nd. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. The numbers are from mid-January and look very old-fashioned:
|Forecasters||Q1 / 21||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a widening in spreads over the course of the year.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal supervisory authority Consumer protection office says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. That might not sound like a lot, but If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Confirm your new price (June 15, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners daily. We’ll find an average interest rate and an APR for each type of loan shown on our chart. By averaging a number of rates, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.